In 2019, the market trend of master roll of adhesive tape is sluggish, and the price focus is reduced. The price runs at 9650-11050 yuan / ton in the year, and the peak season is not prosperous. Looking forward to 2020, the price center of tape master roll will continue to move downward, the macroeconomic growth rate will slow down, and the macro-economy will have a negative impact on the overall chemicals, the cost side is expected to continue to move downward, and the cost support of tape master roll will further weaken; the supply and demand volume of tape master roll will expand synchronously and rapidly, and the contradiction between supply and demand is still sharp; the market mentality and expectation are poor, and the overall market will continue to decline Move forward in the passage. Zhuo Chuang expects that the price range of East China tape master roll in the first quarter of 2020 will be 9000-9600 yuan / ton.
The first quarter of 2020 has passed nearly one third. In January, the market price of the master roll of adhesive tape ushered in the first wave of decline in the year. As of January 15, the market price of the master roll of adhesive tape has been reduced by 75 yuan / ton. The tape master roll manufacturers generally reflect that the enthusiasm of the downstream stock is low before the Spring Festival holiday. At the same time, the tape master roll manufacturers are also relatively cautious about the stock of raw materials and semi-finished products to prevent the price decline after the festival.
First of all, from a macro perspective, looking forward to 2020, China’s economy will still be subject to various pressures from home and abroad, external factors of anti globalization, the overall deterioration of the global foreign trade environment, and China’s market will also be affected. On the other hand, from a cyclical perspective, China is currently at the end of the sixth inventory cycle, and the active de inventory stage of the inventory cycle, downward The pressure brought by the cycle is still unabated, and the domestic economic growth may further decline. It is predicted that the GDP growth rate in 2020 will be infinitely close to 6.0%, and the quarterly GDP growth rate is likely to fall below 6%.
For the commodity market, the domestic and foreign economic situation in 2020 is more severe, the domestic economy still has downward pressure, and the macro atmosphere is not optimistic. It is expected that the atmosphere of the commodity market in 2020 is still cautious, with investors or risk aversion as the main defense. As a member of the commodity, the operation of BOPP tape master roll is not only affected by its own supply and demand fundamentals, but also by the whole commodity Potential and atmosphere.
BOPP or loose in the first quarter
Secondly, in terms of raw material BOPP membrane, first of all, BOPP market is faced with the situation of downstream Spring Festival holiday. At present, the market’s delivery and investment are reduced, and the early orders are mainly delivered. The downstream demand will be recovered after the mid February (Lantern Festival), but how many stocks are available in the downstream, waiting for the purchase of membrane market or adopting the rhythm of rigid demand can be a negative factor; meanwhile, creative research has been carried out in 53 Enterprises inquired by the research At present, 31 enterprises have clearly shut down and the spot price of BOPP membrane market is low, which has a supporting effect on the market price and can be used as a reference for short-term favorable factors. Finally, the BOPP raw material PP market has the expectation of new production in the first quarter, the expectation of petrochemical inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, and the expectation of slow recovery of downstream demand after the Spring Festival. The spot price of PP may be in a downward channel for a long time, which will certainly drag down the BOPP market , which can be used as a reference for negative factors.
On the whole, BOPP membrane market recovered slowly in February due to the market demand, and the downward cost of raw material price weakened its support. However, due to the low spot price in BOPP membrane market, it supported the price, and the market price fell by a limited margin. Therefore, Zhuo Chuang expects to make a small profit at BOPP membrane price in February, and then adjust with the price of raw PP. In March, BOPP membrane price needs more crude oil, as well as the future and spot stock dynamics of raw material PP.
Butyl acrylate or first strong then weak
On the other hand, the trend of butyl acrylate in the first quarter may rise first and then fall. First of all, in the near future, its raw material propylene will start well in 2020, with the price rising, which has obvious support for butyl acrylate. The market profit of butyl acrylate will be compressed, and there will be a good price rise in the market of butyl acrylate. On the other hand, from the perspective of supply and demand, according to the research of Zhuo Chuang, at present, the starting load rate of butyl acrylate industry is 58%, and a small amount of parking will be started during the Spring Festival holiday Considering that the industry’s starting load rate is 55%, there is no shortage of market supply for the time being. However, due to the large-scale holiday of Spring Festival, the demand is seriously reduced, and the imbalance between supply and demand is obvious, which can be a negative factor.
In general, in the first quarter of 2020, the price of butyl acrylate is likely to go up under the support of raw materials, and in the middle and later stages, there is a risk of falling due to the sluggish demand, focusing on the downstream procurement of propylene and butyl acrylate.
In the first quarter of 2020, the raw material support of the tape master roll is in the trend of first strong and then weak, while the market demand or weak side of the tape master roll.
According to Zhuo Chuang’s research, the tape master roll manufacturers have about 10-15 days’ holiday in the Spring Festival. Most of them can start work on February 9. According to the history, the downstream demand also recovers after the Lantern Festival (February 8). At present, the downstream is obviously bearish towards the aftermarket. After the Spring Festival, the procurement may also be in a cautious state, mainly on demand, with the tape master roll branch The support is limited.
Outstanding point of view
In general, in the first quarter of 2020, the tape master roll market is still in a weak state of shock. Market users should be cautious about the unilateral rise of single raw materials to boost the tape master roll market. From the middle of January to the end of the month, due to the influence of traditional Spring Festival holiday, the price of adhesive tape master roll is mainly stable, which does not exclude the possibility of slight loosening of high price. In February, the market people gradually returned to the market, the raw material trends, do not rule out the short-term trend of double raw materials have differences, and the price of tape master roll is in a stalemate negotiation state. In March, due to the current situation, double raw materials have the risk of reduction and weak demand, so the price of tape master roll may be reduced. Zhuo Chuang expects that the price fluctuation range of the main roll of the belt in the first quarter of 2020 will be 9000-9600 yuan / ton.
Shenzhen World Packing Industrial Limited
Top Stretch Wrap Film & Adhesive Tapes Manufacturer in China