In a blink of an eye, 2020 has come to July, many people feel, how can time pass so fast? ! The world environment is really special this year, with all kinds of magical openings and all kinds of unexpected breaks. Anyway, after so many experiences, you will always see the rainbow after the storm!
2020 is also a difficult year for China’s foreign trade industry. At the beginning of year outbreak the COVID-19 , companies were unable to start work. When the work started, they were unable to recruit workers. When the recruitment was completed, foreign COVID-19 broke out, orders were sluggish, and fixed costs remained high… Do not hoard people? Do you hoard goods? This is a choice that every company has to make.
It’s just the meaning of saying so much, the boss is too difficult, I hope employees understand it.
Back to the theme, in the first half of 2020, the trend of stretch film plastic raw materials is like this:
As shown in the above chart, it can be clearly seen that under the influence of the epidemic, the price of raw materials fell strongly, but then the price rose strongly. At present, the price in July has exceeded the high point in early February.
Many people wonder why the raw material market can maintain such a strong situation with the current sluggish demand. The author (world-packing market analyst) believes that the reason for this strange and somewhat unreasonable occurrence is precisely that the demand is languishing to a certain extent!
Why do you say that? With the stagnation of many major economies in the world and the reduction of economic activity, the world’s overall demand has languished to a certain state, and it is precisely this that the demand for crude oil has also dropped to freezing point. Although all major oil-extracting countries have reduced their supply, they still cannot change the situation of oversupply. This situation even led to negative mail in May. Today, many major oil companies have greatly reduced or even stopped refining oil. As for the various particles of chemical industry (polyethylene, polypropylene, etc.), most of their raw materials come from the residues of petroleum refining!
Everyone should be clear here:
Reduced demand- Reduced crude oil refining- Reduced crude oil residue- NO raw material- Stretch Film Raw Material Price rise
This wave of price increases is not due to the shortage of pellets, but the raw materials of pellets are not available!
Will this situation be maintained? The author believes that it will, but it will not last.
The short-term strength is bound to cause a counterattack. To put it simply, if the supplier of the residue finds that it is profitable, then there will be a supply, and it will suppress the momentum of this wave of price increases. By that time, the factors that really affect the price of pellets will always be dominated by the market’s demand for products.
Of course, when the epidemic situation is not clear, the above is only the analysis of the author. If you have different opinions, welcome to leave a message & discuss with us!
Original: Shenzhen World Packing Industry Ltd. (2020/7/17), please indicate the source when forwarding.
中文原文：
2020年上半年拉伸膜原料颗粒价格回顾与分析
一转眼，2020已经走到7月份，很多人感觉，怎么时间过得这么快？！今年世界环境确实特殊，各种魔幻开局各种意想不到各种跌破眼球。不管怎么样，经历那么多，总会风雨后见彩虹吧！
2020对于中国外贸行业来说，也是一个艰难的年份。年初时候中国疫情爆发，企业无法开工，等开工了，又无法招工，等招工完成了，国外疫情爆发，订单萎靡，而固定成本居高不下… 囤不囤人？囤不囤货？这是每个企业都要做的选择。
讲这么多，只是这个意思，老板太难了啊，希望员工多多理解。
回归主题，2020上半年，拉伸膜塑料原料的走势是这样的：
如上图，可以清楚看出，疫情影响下，原料价格一波强有力的杀跌，但随后，价格强势上涨，目前7月份价格已经超过2月初的高点。
很多人疑惑，为什么目前需求这么萎靡的情况下，原料市场居然能保持如此的强势。笔者(world-packing市场分析师）认为，这种奇葩且有点讲不通发生的原因，正恰恰的需求萎靡到一定程度的体现！
为什么这么说呢？随着很多世界主要经济体的停滞，经济活动的减少，世界总体需求萎靡到一定状态，而正是这样，对原油的需求也是降到冰点。虽然各主要石油开采国都降低供给，但仍然改变不了供大于求的局面。这种情况下，甚至导致了5月份的负邮件，时至今日，很多石油大公司都大量减少甚至停止对石油的提炼。 而化工的各种颗粒(聚乙烯，聚丙烯等等)，其原料来源大部分就是来自对石油提炼残渣！
这里大家就应该清楚了：
需求减少–原油提炼减少–原油残渣减少–原料没了–价格上涨
这波涨价，不是颗粒供不应求，而是颗粒的原料没有货！
这种情况会否维持？笔者认为，会，但不会持久。
短线的强势，势必造成反扑。简单来说就是，残渣的供应商发现，有利可图，那就会有供应出来，也就会抑制这波涨价的动力。到那个时候，真正对颗粒价格影响的因素，始终就会为市场对产品需求所主导。
当然，在疫情未明朗之时，以上也只是笔者的分析，如果各位有不同意见，欢迎留言讨论
原创：深圳混元包装工业有限公司 （2020/7/17）转载请注明来源